Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Goldman Sachs Group provides a template for how to get the financial system back on its feet.
Berkshire Hathaway投资高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)的交易为美国金融体系如何东山再起提供了一个模板。
The problem is, the Bush administration's $700 billion bailout plan ignores some of the key lessons of Warren Buffett's deal. Most notably: Capital, or lack of it, is at the heart of the crisis.
问题是,布什政府7,000亿美元的拯救方案少了沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)这桩交易的一些关键经验。最显而易见的就是资本问题,资本匮乏正是这场危机的核心问题。
The proposed bailout only goes a certain distance in addressing that, so it mightn't spark the sort of quick confidence rebound its proponents are hoping for. That explains Wednesday's renewed stress in debt markets.
鉴于拯救方案只朝着解决这一问题方向迈出了一小步,因此或许难以像方案支持者所希望的那样迅速提振市场信心。这也是周三债市再次承压的原因所在。
The realism of the Goldman/Buffett deal is instructive. The market was getting nervous about funding Goldman's highly leveraged balance sheet. The bank had to adjust and raise expensive capital quickly.
巴菲特与高盛交易的现实意义能带给我们一些启发。市场对高盛集团杠杆比例过高的资产负债表越来越感到忧虑,不愿为此提供融资。在这种状况下,高盛不得不作出调整,迅速筹集高成本资本。
First, Goldman agreed to become a bank-holding company Sunday, giving it greater access to Federal Reserve credit. Then it reduced leverage markedly by raising $10 billion in fresh capital from Berkshire and other investors. It did so even though it meant diluting shareholders by as much as 20%.
首先,高盛周日同意成为一家银行控股公司,提高了从联邦储备委员会(Fed)获得的借贷额度。接着,高盛从Berkshire和其他投资者那里筹集了100亿美元新资本,显著降低了杠杆比例。即便此举导致股东权益稀释了至多20%,高盛也在所不惜。
In contrast, the government's bailout plan contains no explicit demands that banks raise capital. If Goldman needed to, others surely do.
相比之下,政府的拯救计划没有包括与银行筹资有关的明确要求。如果高盛都需要资本,那么其他公司肯定也一样。
Instead, the government plan aims to repair balance sheets just by taking large amounts of distressed assets from the banks. True, this could allow banks to reverse losses, depending on the price at which the government buys them. That would boost capital to an extent. But, on its own, not by enough to soothe credit markets, which want to see balance sheets cleaned up more definitively.
相反,政府的拯救计划剑走偏锋,只是从各家银行收购数额巨大的问题资产,以此修复他们的资产负债状况。诚然,这样或许能使银行挽回损失,不过这还取决于政府的收购价格。拯救方案或许能在一定程度上提振银行资本。但该计划本身可能不足以平定信贷市场,市场想看到的是干干净净的银行资产负债表。
Indeed, Mr. Buffett likely made a bet on Goldman because he felt comfortable with the valuations on its balance sheet. Investors looking at the U.S. financial system overall need to feel the same level of comfort before things return to anything like normal.
实际上,巴菲特之所以会投资高盛,可能是因为他对高盛的资产负债表的估值感到满意。只有投资者对美国金融体系整体状况达到同样的满意程度,情况才能逐渐恢复正常。
The bailout plan might not achieve that if the government buys bad assets at prices higher than they would fetch in the market. This would allow banks to maintain inflated valuations for the assets they retain. The possible result: continued mistrust of banks' balance sheets.
如果政府以高于市价的价格收购不良资产,那么拯救方案可能就无法达到效果。这会导致银行保留下来的资产维持虚高估值。可能的结果就是,市场仍然不信任银行的资产负债状况。
The alternative -- buying at conservative mark-to-market levels -- could trigger further financial losses in the system, exacerbating the need for capital.
但如果政府以保守的市值价位收购这些资产,就可能会引发金融体系更多的损失,从而加剧资本需求。
A multipronged approach could address that dilemma. Like Mr. Buffett, the government needs to focus its resources on shoring up institutions that can survive the crisis. This could take the form of asset purchases, equity investments or a combination.
或许多头并进的手段可以化解这个难题。和巴菲特一样,政府需要集中资源支持那些能够挺过危机的金融机构。这可以通过收购资产、进行股份投资或齐头并进的方式进行。
Meanwhile, it should leave the weakest to be euthanized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., beefed up by a portion of the bailout funding.
另一方面,政府应该拨出一部分拯救资金给联邦存款保险公司(FDIC),由该机构负责对回天乏术的公司实施安乐死。
A big number, by itself, won't restore confidence. Any solution that doesn't directly address the capital shortfall is likely to fail.
靠一笔巨款本身无法恢复市场信心。任何拯救方案如果不能直接解决资本短缺的问题,就有可能失败。
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