China Cuts Corporate Tax To Shore Up The Economy 中国有意通过减税拉动经济增长

China's government is moving closer to extending nationwide a tax change that would lower businesses' bills, as policy makers look to the country's flush finances for ways to offset an economic slowdown and the global financial turmoil.
中国政府将一项税制改革推广到全国的可能性进一步增强，此举能降低企业税负。决策者们希望，可以用中国充裕的财政收入来抵消经济放缓和全球金融危机的影响。


China surprised markets last week with a cut in lending rates and an intervention to buoy the stock market. But tax and spending policy is also playing a role in efforts to shore up business and consumer confidence. The government has already dropped fees assessed on small businesses and raised export-tax rebates for textiles and other products.
中国政府上周下调贷款利率并出手救市，令市场大感意外。但税收及支出政策也在提振企业和消费者信心方面发挥著作用。政府已经取消了向个体工商户征收的管理费，并提高了纺织品和其它产品的出口退税。


In a broader tax change, the government has been expanding a program that lets businesses deduct spending on new machinery and equipment from the value-added tax, or VAT, its single biggest source of revenue. That program, in local trials since 2004, has been rolled out to four new provinces in the past few months, and some analysts think it could be adopted nationally soon.
实施税制改革的过程中，政府一直在扩大增值税转型的试点范围，这项改革允许企业购进机器设备等固定资产的进项税金在销项税金中抵扣。这项政策2004年开始试点，过去几个月中实施范围又扩大了四个省。一些分析师认为，这项政策很快将在全国推行。增值税是中国政府最大的单一收入来源。


'I think it looks more and more like the government has to use a policy of fiscal expansion' to support growth, says Xiao Geng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy in Beijing. 'China is really the only part of the global economy that has very strong potential growth. It's going to affect the global economy if China cannot sustain its growth.'
北京清华-布鲁金斯公共政策研究中心(Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy)主任萧耿认为，政府越来越有可能采取财政扩张政策以支持经济增长。他说，中国现在是全球经济中唯一具有强大增长潜力的国家，如果中国不能持续增长，全球经济都会受到影响。


Some economic indicators, like steel and electricity production, slowed sharply in August, and housing sales have continued to deteriorate. Additional measures to support the economy are considered increasingly likely as leaders sound more worried about the nation's prospects.
钢铁产量和发电量等经济指标8月份的增速大幅放缓，房屋销售状况继续恶化。随着中国领导人对国内经济前景更加感到担忧，人们认为政府出台更多措施以提振经济增长的可能性越来越大。


'Given the complex and changing international economic situation, the international financial turmoil, and the marked slowdown in the global economy, the situation may further worsen,' Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speech to government leaders last weekend. 'The impact of these changes on our country should not be underestimated.'
中国总理温家宝上周末在向省部级领导人讲话时称：“国际经济形势复杂多变，国际金融动荡，全球经济明显减速，形势还可能进一步加剧。这些变化对我国的影响不可低估。”


Many analysts now expect another interest-rate cut this year. But still-high inflation, of 4.9% in August, could prevent aggressive reductions. And there's also concern that cutting rates and expanding lending would just reinflate bubbles in the property and stock markets. Analysts are looking to a high-level Communist Party meeting in October to produce more consensus on the next steps.
许多分析师现在预计今年还会再次减息。但通货膨胀率居高不下（8月份时为4.9%）会降低大幅减息的可能性。也有人担心减息和扩大贷款规模只会让房地产市场和股市再次产生泡沫。分析师们期望10月份召开的中共十七届三中全会能就今后的经济政策形成更多共识。


Given doubts over the wisdom of more rate cuts, many scholars favor stimulating the economy through government spending or tax cuts. 'In a situation where adjustments to monetary policy should not be rapid, a stabilizing fiscal policy can play a more active role,' Li Xuzhang, an economist at the Central Party School, argued in a recent commentary in its weekly publication.
鉴于对继续减息是否明智持怀疑态度，许多学者更支持通过增加政府支出或减税来刺激经济。中央党校经济学家李旭章不久前该校的周刊《学习时报》上撰文称，从紧的货币政策基调不宜改变，稳健的财政政策要发挥更积极的作用。


In addition to extra spending, lower taxes are also part of the mix. The standard corporate tax rate was cut to 25% from 33% at the beginning of this year, and the threshold for personal income taxes was also raised.
除了扩大支出外，减税也是经济刺激方案的组成部分。今年初，企业所得税税率从33%下调到了25%，个人所得税的征收起点也提高了。


Mr. Wen, the premier, said in March that the government would put together a plan for a nationwide rollout of the new VAT system this year. China's 17% VAT is levied on the difference between a company's revenue and costs. However, when the VAT was launched in 1994, it excluded spending on fixed assets, like equipment, from allowable costs.
温家宝总理3月份说，政府今年将制定出在全国推广新增值税体系的方案。中国按企业收入与成本之差额的17%征收增值税。不过，当1994年设立增值税时，可扣税成本中并不包括生产设备等方面的固定资产支出。


The government has been planning to remove that exclusion for years, but has moved slowly because it would lower state revenue. This year's slowing growth has brought more calls for a change, and many expect the new VAT to be part of any package of supportive policies.
政府多年来一直计划将这部分支出包括进来，但由于此举将减少国库收入，因此一直进展迟缓。今年经济增长放缓引来了更多加快改革的呼声，许多人预计，无论出台何种刺激经济增长的方案，新的增值税政策都会是其组成部分。


'It is effectively a tax cut. For businesses, the sooner it comes out, the better,' says Yang Zhiyong, a tax researcher at the Institute of Finance and Trade Economics in Beijing. There are no technical barriers to the change, he says, as the new system is already in effect in parts of 13 provinces. The VAT applies to both foreign and local businesses.
中国社会科学院财政与贸易研究所研究员杨志勇说，这实际上是种减税举措。对企业而言，越早出台，效果越好。他说，这一改变不存在技术障碍，因为新税制已经在13省的部分地区实施。增值税对外资和内资企业同样适用。


Researchers for the International Monetary Fund have estimated, based on the budget for 2001, that such a change would reduce VAT revenue by anywhere from 15% to 30%. Estimates by domestic scholars tend to be smaller, at 10% or less of the 1.547 trillion yuan ($226.6 billion) in revenue the tax raised in 2007.
国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)研究人员基于中国2001年的预算估计，新税制将使增值税收入减少15%至30%。国内学者估计的数值要低一些，约为中国2007年增值税收入人民币1.547万亿元（约合2,266亿美元)的10%或更低。


China's government has plenty of money to play with. As revenue boomed last year, China's central and local governments ran a combined -- and unplanned -- surplus equivalent to 0.7% of gross domestic product. The government was already planning a return to deficit spending this year, with March's budget forecasts implying a gap that would be 0.8% of GDP. New government spending announced after May's earthquake in Sichuan province will likely increase the deficit to 1% of GDP, according to the Asian Development Bank.
中国政府有充足的资金面对这种变化。随着去年收入的大幅增加，中国中央政府和地方政府的财政盈余合计相当于GDP的0.7%。政府已经计划今年重新出现赤字，3月份的预算报告曾预计今年的赤字将达到GDP的0.8%。亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)称，5月份四川大地震后新宣布的政府支出可能会让赤字增加到GDP的1%。


Frank Gong, an economist for J.P. Morgan, expects China's budget deficit to widen to 2% of GDP in 2009 as the government rolls out more stimulus policies. The bigger deficit could add two or three percentage points to China's overall growth rate, he estimates, offsetting some of the export slowdown.
摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)经济学家龚方雄(Frank Gong)预计，随着中国推出更多刺激政策，中国2009年的预算赤字将增加到GDP的2%。他预计，赤字的增加将使中国的总体经济增长率提高两到三个百分点，抵消部分出口放缓的影响。


Mr. Gong says that would allow China to expand at 9.5% next year, compared with his forecast of 10.1% this year.
龚方雄说，这将使中国明年的增长率达到9.5%。他预计中国今年的经济增长率为10.1%。