Chinese Shares Sink 5.2% On Concern Over Inflation 中国股市奈何重挫

NEGATIVE ECONOMIC data from China triggered a selloff of mainland stocks, as nervous investors worried that inflationary pressure could hurt earnings growth.
中国消极的经济数据引发大陆股市大卖盘，因为焦虑重重的投资者担心通胀压力会损害收益增长。


The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks shares sold to domestic investors as well as the so-called Class B shares available to foreigners, sank 5.2% to close at 2470.07, its lowest level in more than 18 months. The fall came despite rises in stock indexes in Tokyo, Singapore, Mumbai and other Asian markets, and defied Friday's 2.6% rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
上证指数下挫5.2%，收于2470.07点，是18个月以来最低水平。东京、新加坡、孟买及其他亚洲股市的股指都有所上扬，道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)上周五也上涨了2.6%。


The stock market's decline came after China's National Bureau of Statistics said the country's producer-price index rose 10% in July from the same month in 2007. The increase clocked in at the high end of economists' expectations of between 8% and 10% and represented the largest growth spurt in 12 years. In June, the PPI rose 8.8%.
中国国家统计局公布7月的生产者价格指数(PPI)较上年同期上涨10%，股市由此下滑。此前经济学家们预计PPI涨幅为8%-10%，而实际增幅达到预测值的上限，也是12年来最大涨幅。6月PPI上涨8.8%。


'The macro environment is definitely turning against China,' said Vincent Lam, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at hedge fund Ramius Capital Group LLC. China is set to disclose consumer-price data Tuesday. The two indexes together offer a glimpse into how inflation is affecting margins at manufacturers.
对冲基金Ramius Capital Group LLC驻香港投资组合经理Vincent Lam说，宏观经济显然对中国不利。中国将于周二发布消费者价格指数(CPI)。这两个指数可让人们对通胀如何影响制造厂商的利润空间有些许了解。


'Investors are worried Beijing may soon roll out more macroeconomic control measures,' said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities, a Hong Kong firm.
香港的富昌证券有限公司(Fulbright Securities)总经理蔺常念(Francis Lun)说，投资者担心中国政府会很快出台更多的宏观经济调控措施。


In particular, investors are worrying about continued appreciation of the yuan, said Cecilia Melin, a senior adviser to the Asia-focused Panax Fund. Exporters are eager to see an easing of the yuan. Exporters are generally hurt by a stronger currency because it makes their goods more expensive overseas.
重点关注亚洲的Panax Fund的资深顾问塞西莉亚?梅林(Cecilia Melin)表示，投资者最担心的是人民币继续升值。出口商迫切希望人民币汇率回落。人民币走强会令出口商品在海外价格更贵，因而损害出口商。


Some investors say Monday's selloff may have been exacerbated by disappointment that the government didn't intervene to prop up shares while the Beijing Olympics were under way. On Aug. 1, Chinese President Hu Jintao said at a news briefing that the government will work to maintain economic growth -- a statement that sent the Shanghai index up nearly 1%, because many took the comment as a hint of support for the stock market.
一些投资者表示，由于政府没有在北京奥运会期间托市造成投资者的失望情绪，从而加剧了周一的卖盘。8月1日，中国国家主席胡锦涛在一个新闻发布会上表示，政府将努力保持经济增长──许多人认为这番话中暗含政府将托市之意，进而推动上证指数上涨近1%。


Beyond the short-term swings, there are starker challenges for Chinese stocks, investors say. The low-cost manufacturing model is proving inadequate for public companies that need to deliver higher-than-expected earnings to attract shareholders. While the government has tried to encourage economic growth in the inland provinces, such as Anhui and Hunan, a transfer of operations inland is only beginning to occur. In the meantime, coastal companies are suffering from higher costs, including wage growth as well as rising expenses for raw materials.
投资者们表示，除了短期振荡，中国股市还面临更为严峻的挑战。低成本生产模式越来越不适用于需要产生高于预期的收益以吸引股东的上市公司。虽然政府极力鼓励安徽和湖南等内陆省份的经济增长，但将业务向内陆地区转移还只是刚刚开始。与此同时，沿海公司饱受成本上涨之苦，包括工资的增长以及日渐高涨的原材料成本。


In addition, the mainland market is dominated by retail investors. Known for whipsaw fickleness -- not just in China but in other emerging markets -- small individual investors who drove up prices during last year's euphoria have reacted with similar vehemence on the downside, dumping shares at the slightest provocation.
此外，大陆市场中散户占了绝大多数。散户投资者以变化无常著称──不光是中国，其他新兴市场也是如此。他们在去年的股市大好形势中推动了股票价格高涨，现在则以同样的激烈程度推动股市下行，就算只有最微小的刺激也会大肆抛售。


Finally, mainland investors don't have ways of hedging their stock positions, such as shorting or derivatives. An outright sale of shares is the only method for reducing an investor's risk.
最后，大陆的股票投资者没有对冲手段，比如卖空或衍生产品。因此割肉是减少投资者风险的唯一途径。


The intensity of Monday's selloff prompted some investors to question whether shares are ripe for a turnaround. With its rich foreign-exchange reserves, China is better positioned than other export-driven economies in Asia to weather a global slowdown. Flagging local sentiment about the economy could result in surprises on the upside in terms of the economy as well as corporate earnings.
周一抛盘的强度使一些投资者怀疑股市是否已濒临回弹边缘。中国拥有大量外汇储备，因此比亚洲其他出口导向型经济体更能经受全球经济下滑的压力。国内对经济的敏感情绪衰减可能产生宏观经济和公司收益好转的惊喜结果。