The global financial crisis has taken a perilous turn: As government efforts to tame it grow more aggressive, markets are becoming less confident those efforts will succeed.
全球金融危机已经发生了危险的变化：政府应对危机的举措日渐有力，但市场对这些措施获得成功的信心却越来越弱。
On Monday, the Federal Reserve and European governments stepped up relief efforts, above and beyond the $700 billion rescue package approved by the Congress last week. But markets around the world responded with a massive vote of no confidence. European stocks saw their biggest drop in at least 20 years, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 10000 mark, a stark sign that the crisis may be outpacing policy makers' ability to contain it.
在美国国会上周批准的7,000亿美元救助计划之外，美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)和欧洲各国政府周一又出台了新的救助措施。但全球市场却对此普遍投了不信任票。欧洲股市出现至少20年来的最大跌幅，道琼斯指数跌破10000点大关，这种惨烈的景象或许表明决策者对危机或许已无能为力。
The deepening malaise illustrates how the financial crisis has moved far beyond U.S. subprime-mortgage troubles to a much more fundamental breakdown of trust. The best efforts of U.S. and European officials haven't solved the central problem: Nobody knows which firms will go under, making almost everybody afraid to lend.
不断加剧的市场动荡显示出金融危机已经远远超出美国次债危机的范围，到了更为根本性的信心崩溃的地步。欧美监管官员竭尽全力，但却未能解决最重要的问题：没有人知道哪家公司接下来会破产，令几乎所有人都害怕贷出资金。
The problem has become so severe that it's affecting not only banks, but regular companies, which are finding it more difficult to borrow money for everyday activities such as paying workers and buying supplies. If sustained, the freeze in short-term-lending markets will weigh heavily on the weakening global economy. Investors are now coming to recognize this harsh reality.
问题已经十分严重，受影响的已不光是银行，还有普通企业。公司发现越来越难以为支付工人薪水和购买原材料等日常活动获得贷款。如果这种情况持续下去，短期信贷市场的冻结会给日趋疲软的全球经济带来沉重压力。投资者们现在正认识到这种严酷的现实。
'In order to shore up confidence in the system -- and by the system, I mean the money markets -- you need something bigger, and you need something that is pretty consistent across countries,' says Hans Lorenzen, credit strategist in London for Citigroup Inc. 'And you need it pretty quickly.'
花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)驻伦敦信贷策略师洛伦森(Hans Lorenzen)说，为了支撑货币市场体系的信心，就需要更大规模的举措，而且要各国协调一致，还得行动迅速。
The Fed, 12 months into a sometimes makeshift campaign that is rewriting textbooks on central banking, unveiled more measures Monday to unblock the stoppage that has plagued short-term-lending markets for the past few weeks. It said it will begin paying interest on the reserves that banks leave on deposit with the central bank, a key addition to its playbook. The move will make it easier for the Fed to manage interest rates while it floods a damaged financial system with loans that nobody in the private sector will make.
过去12个月中Fed采取的有些行动甚至改写了央行业务的基本原则，其中也不乏权宜之计；周一，Fed出台了更多措施，试图解除过去几周令短期贷款市场陷入困境的停顿状况。Fed表示将开始为银行的存款准备金付息，这是又一重大举措。该举措会令Fed在向受损金融机构注入大量贷款时更容易掌控利率。私营机构没有哪一家能获得Fed的贷款。
U.S. officials are also examining ways to ease deepening strains in the commercial-paper market, a crucial source of short-term loans for banks and other companies in the U.S. and Europe. Interest-rate cuts by the Fed look increasingly likely to follow.
美国相关官员也在考虑减轻商业票据市场压力的方式。商业票据市场是欧美银行及其他公司短期贷款的主要来源。Fed接下来很可能降息。
On Monday evening, U.K. officials were in talks with bank executives about possible emergency injections of capital from the government, a person familiar with the matter said. U.K. Treasury chief Alistair Darling didn't offer a specific plan.
知情人士称，周一晚间，英国相关官员与银行管理人员就可能的政府紧急注资展开谈判。英国财政大臣达林(Alistair Darling)并未提出具体计划。
As the credit crisis becomes more of a global problem, coordinated action on interest rates could become more appealing to policy makers. Such moves could be on the agenda when global financial officials gather this weekend in Washington as part of annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
随着信贷危机日渐成为全球问题，在利率方面采取一致行动对决策者来说可能更具吸引力。作为国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)和世界银行(World Bank)年度会议的一部分，全球各国财政官员本周末将齐聚华盛顿，届时调息举措将会被列入议程。
'Coordination is of the essence,' said Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, in an interview ahead of the meetings.
国际货币基金组织首席经济学家布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)在会议之前接受采访时说，合作是必不可少的。
European Union countries made a renewed effort Monday to coordinate their response to the crisis, after a series of unilateral moves by European nations failed to have the desired effect. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country currently holds the EU's rotating presidency, read out on television a common statement by the 27 EU nations that each 'will adopt all the necessary measures to protect the stability of the financial system.'
欧盟国家周一再度为协调一致应对危机做出努力，此前欧洲国家的一系列单方面举措都没有收到预期效果。欧盟现任轮值主席法国总统萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)在电视上发表了欧盟27国的共同声明，表示每个国家都将采取所有必要措施以保护金融系统的稳定性。
The declarations followed the surprise move on Sunday by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to guarantee all residents' bank accounts, only a day after she had criticized a similar move by Ireland. On Monday, Austria, Sweden and Denmark joined the growing list of countries that have improved their deposit-guarantee programs.
在此之前，欧洲最大经济体德国的总理默克尔(Angela Merkel)周日出人意料地出台措施，为所有居民的银行帐户提供担保，而一天前她还批评爱尔兰的类似举措。周一，奥地利、瑞典和丹麦也加入了加强存款保证计划的国家行列。
All the activity has done little to ease strains in lending markets, which have deteriorated rapidly since last month's collapse of U.S. securities firm Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Lehman's bankruptcy filing sent shock waves throughout global markets, precipitating losses even for U.S. money-market investment funds, which were supposed to be as safe as cash.
所有这些活动对减轻贷款市场压力都收效甚微。自美国证券公司雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)上个月破产以来，信贷市场状况迅速恶化。雷曼申请破产对全球市场形成冲击，连本来被认为与现金一样安全的美国货币市场投资基金也蒙受了巨大损失。
Shrinking Market
市场萎缩
In one worrying sign, the U.S. commercial-paper market shrank by a record $94.9 billion during the week ended Oct. 1, to $1.61 trillion in debt outstanding, according to the Fed. That followed a $61 billion decline the week before. Most of the recent contractions were in commercial paper tied to financial companies in the U.S. and overseas.
据Fed数据，在截止10月1日的当周，美国商业票据市场创下缩水949亿美元的纪录，未偿付债务规模降至1.61万亿美元。而此前一周该市场已下滑610亿美元。最近的收缩绝大部分出现在与美国及海外金融公司相关的商业票据上。
On Monday, the Fed took steps to try to get the money flowing again. In addition to paying interest on bank reserves, the Fed said it would aggressively expand its lending to needy banks through a special auction program, with plans to make $900 billion in cash available by year end, compared with the $150 billion planned just two weeks ago.
周一，Fed采取措施，试图增强流动性。除了为银行存款准备金付息，Fed还表示将大大增加通过一个特别拍卖程序提供给需要资金的银行的贷款，计划到今年年底动用9,000亿美元资金，而仅仅两周前的计划还只是1,500亿美元。
The Fed's latest moves add to a litany of aggressive actions U.S. policy makers have taken in the past year to address the spiraling crisis, including the recent $700 billion rescue package. Since last September, the Fed has pulled aggressively on its traditional lever, interest rates, reducing the short-term federal-funds rate to 2% from 5.25% over just a few months.
为了化解这场螺旋式扩散的金融危机，过去一年美国决策者已经采取了诸多积极主动的措施，其中包括近期的7,000亿美元救助计划；现在Fed推出的新举措又为这场轰轰烈烈的救市运动添上新的一笔。自去年9月份以来，Fed已经大举利用传统的利率手段，在短短数月间将短期联邦基金目标利率从5.25%一路调降至2%。
It has also undertaken a steady stream of unorthodox measures: backstopping money-market mutual funds, creating new borrowing facilities for investment banks, taking on troubled assets from Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc., to name a few. In the process, its own balance sheet has been radically transformed. Once a bland storehouse for Treasury securities, the Fed's coffers are now filled with loans to a wobbly financial system, often backed by collateral few other financial institutions want to hold.
Fed还采用了一系列非常之举：支撑货币市场共同基金，为投资银行创建新的借贷机制，从贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns Cos.)和美国国际集团(AIG)承接问题资产；凡此种种，不足而论。在这一过程中，Fed自身的资产负债状况也经历了根本性转型。原本只是财政部国债平凡的仓库，如今Fed的保险箱却塞满了对摇摇欲坠的美国金融体系的贷款，这些贷款的抵押品通常少有其他金融机构愿意持有。
Three factors, however, have made it difficult to accomplish the mission of keeping credit flowing.
然而，三大因素导致了Fed难以完成维持信贷流动的使命。
First, banks and investors are pushing to pare back their debt, a process known as deleveraging. The Fed can slow that process, but it can't stop it.
首先，银行和投资者目前正在纷纷削减负债，这个过程被称为解除杠杆。Fed可以延缓这一过程，却无法阻止。
Second, the financial innovations of recent years -- once thought to be a good thing, because they spread risk -- have become a curse. That's because they obscure where risk is held, exacerbating uncertainty over which financial institutions will survive.
其次，近年来的金融产品创新──由于能分散风险，一度被视为是好事──已经成为了一场诅咒。这是因为这些创新产品使得风险所在变得模糊，加剧了市场对哪些金融机构能够幸存下来的不确定性。
Third, the failure of Lehman and other financial institutions has so damaged confidence that even grand rescue plans are proving unable to restore it.
第三，雷曼兄弟(Lehman)和其他金融机构的先后倒下已经严重摧毁了市场信心，连规模宏大的救助计划都无法重建这种信心。
Fed officials show no signs of stopping their aggressive efforts to fight the crisis.
没有迹象表明Fed官员会停止采取积极措施遏制金融危机。
In Europe, some governments have gone much further than the U.S. in trying to alleviate the pain. Ireland, for example, has issued a blanket guarantee covering virtually all the debts of its six largest banks.
在试图缓解危机影响方面，一些欧洲政府比美国走的更远。例如，爱尔兰开出了一张空白支票，实际上为该国六大银行的所有负债提供了担保。
But coming up with a pan-European plan is proving difficult, in large part because any large-scale bailout would require the approval of many countries. While the European Central Bank oversees monetary policy for the 15 countries that share the euro currency, it cannot step in to provide a lifeline to individual banks. Within the euro zone, such emergency assistance is the province of national central banks, typically working together with governments.
但指望出台一个泛欧洲行动计划会比较困难，主要是因为任何大规模救助计划都需要许多国家的批准。尽管欧洲央行(ECB)监管着欧元区15国的货币政策，但该央行不能越俎代庖地为单个银行提供救助。在欧元区范围内，此类紧急救助是各国央行的职责所在，它们通常会与各自政府密切合作。
An effort at common action on Saturday, before the latest round of shocks, largely failed. Germany and the U.K. rejected Mr. Sarkozy's suggestion of a common bailout fund for European banks akin to the U.S.'s $700 billion rescue plan, unhappy at the idea of sinking taxpayer money into a fund they can't control.
在最近一波危机冲击之前，上周六欧洲国家采取共同行动的努力基本宣告失败。德国和英国拒绝了法国总统萨科齐提出为欧洲银行组建一个共同救助基金的建议──类似于美国的7,000亿美元救助计划──两国不愿向一个它们无法控制的基金注入纳税人资金。
'Europe's economic integration is rather deep, and the inter-bank market is an integrated Europe market,' says Daniel Gros, director of the Center for European Policy Studies, a Brussels think tank. 'But national politicians haven't understood that yet, and they're acting as if banks still had a nationality, so that some banks are their children and others are not.'
布鲁塞尔智库机构欧洲政策研究中心(Center for European Policy Studies)负责人格罗斯(Daniel Gros)表示，欧洲经济一体化程度非常深，银行间市场就是个一体化的欧洲市场。但各国政要还没有认识到这一点，他们的所作所为就像银行仍然存在国界一样，认为一些银行是自家孩子，而另外一些是别人家的。
Alessandro Profumo, chief executive of Italian bank UniCredit, says he hopes for a 'European solution.' He contends that 'the country-by-country solution doesn't work at all because now the financial system is really a system which is completely interconnected.'
意大利银行UniCredit首席执行长普罗富莫(Alessandro Profumo)表示，他期待着一个“欧洲解决方案”。他认为，各国各行其是的解决方案根本不能奏效，因为目前金融体系实际上是一个完全密不可分的体系。
On Sunday, UniCredit, Italy's second-biggest bank in terms of market value, announced plans to raise 6.6 billion euros to shore up its finances. In an interview, Mr. Profumo conceded that his bank had misjudged the scope of the credit crisis.
意大利市值第二大银行UniCredit周日宣布，计划筹措66亿欧元提振财务状况。普罗富莫在采访中承认，该银行错误估计了信贷危机的程度。
Problems may be particularly acute in Europe because banks there are more dependent on the short-term-lending markets than are banks in the U.S. and Asia. They've shown a particular hunger for dollar loans, which they used to finance dollar-denominated investments, such as U.S. mortgage securities. European banks steadily increased their dollar borrowings, reaching a total of about $800 billion at the end of last year, compared with $500 billion in 2005, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
欧洲银行业的问题可能尤为严重，因为较之美国和亚洲银行，欧洲银行更加依赖于短期借贷市场。欧洲银行目前急需美元贷款，为美国按揭债券等美元计价投资提供资金。根据国际清算银行(BIS)的数据，欧洲银行的美元贷款量稳步上升，去年年底总额达到了8,000亿美元左右，而2005年为5,000亿美元。
Simon Adamson, an analyst at debt-research firm CreditSights, notes that a heavy reliance on short-term-lending markets, rather than regular customer deposits, is common among the European banks that have run into trouble in recent weeks. 'It is mainly when this feature is found in combination with other perceived weaknesses that confidence evaporates,' he says.
债券研究机构CreditSights分析师亚当森(Simon Adamson)指出，近来陷入困境的欧洲银行普遍严重依赖短期信贷市场，而不是通常的客户储蓄。他说，当市场发现这一特性以及其他已知缺陷时，他们的信心也丧失怡尽。
Amplified Problems
放大的问题
The difficulties encountered by Germany's Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, one of the region's biggest lenders, underscore how fast things can unravel -- and how the world's interconnected financial markets are amplifying the problems. Over the weekend, the German government and financial firms agreed to a 15 billion euros bailout package on top of a previously arranged 30 billion euros rescue plan.
德国Hypo Real Estate Holding AG是欧洲最大的贷款商之一。从该银行遭遇的问题可以看出，问题是如何迅速扩散的，以及全球紧密关联的金融市场如何将问题扩大化。过去这个周末，德国政府和其他金融公司同意，在此前300亿欧元救助计划的基础上，再向该银行提供150亿欧元的救助一揽子计划。
Hypo's troubles started last month, when Lehman's bankruptcy filing caused short-term lending markets to freeze. Within a day, a benchmark bank borrowing rate known as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, saw its sharpest increase on record.
Hypo的问题开始于上个月，当时雷曼兄弟破产导致了短期信贷市场陷入冻结。一天之内，基准银行借贷利率──伦敦银行同业拆息(Libor)创下了历史最大升幅。
Caught up in the lending freeze was Depfa Bank PLC, a little-known Dublin banking unit of Hypo. Until this month, Depfa had been highly dependent on loans from other banks. When the market for such lending froze up, Depfa's access to funding came to a halt. 'That market has dried out,' Hypo spokesman Hans Obermeier said.
首先遭遇融资枯竭的是Hypo不知名的都柏林银行子公司Depfa Bank PLC。本月之前，Depfa一直都高度依赖来自其他银行的贷款。当银行间贷款市场陷入冻结后，Depfa的融资渠道也陷入了停滞。Hypo发言人奥伯迈尔(Hans Obermeier)说，那个市场已经干涸了。
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