Heard On The Street: No Fundamental Shift 股市上扬 基本面没变

Sentiment, not fundamentals, changed Friday. Investors should remember that when assessing the broad market rally that sent even long out-of-favor stocks soaring.
改变了上周五股市走势的是市场情绪，而非基本面因素。投资者在评估市场大范围上扬、乃至长期“失宠”的股票也纷纷飙升的时候，应该谨记这一点。


Behind the upward moves was a mixture of hedge funds unwinding a host of short positions and sheer relief among investors who felt a market crash could be imminent. None of that, though, changed fundamentals affecting companies' underlying businesses, whether in retail, media, autos or technology.
股市上行走势的背后推动力量是对冲基金大量平空仓，以及那些认为股市崩盘迫在眉睫的投资者长舒了一口气。但是，这些都没有改变影响着公司主要业务的基本面，无论是零售、媒体、汽车还是科技行业。


True, the risk of the financial system imploding, with huge collateral damage to the real economy, has receded in the wake of the government's proposed bailout for distressed financial institutions. But there is still a strong chance economic weakness will crystallize into a recession in coming months.
诚然，在美国政府提出针对陷入财政困难的金融机构的救助计划后，金融体系崩塌的风险已经减退，不会因抵押品问题而对实体经济造成严重破坏。但是，在未来的几个月里经济疲弱升级为衰退的可能性仍很大。


More to the point, any secular decline hurting industries -- such as newspapers -- isn't going away.
更重要的是，对报纸等行业造成损害的持续下滑仍没有消除。


So Friday's 22% jump in stock of McClatchy, for instance, isn't a sign that the company was better off Friday than it was Thursday. It is struggling under a heavy debt load amid inexorably declining ad revenue. That raises serious questions about its long term prospects.
所以，上周五报业集团McClatchy股票暴涨22%，并不意味着该公司周五的运营情况比周四好，它仍在巨额债务和广告收入不断下滑的重压之下苦苦挣扎。该公司的长期前景仍会受到严重质疑。


Not surprisingly then, it has been heavily shorted. While the short-covering hopefully will correct over-sold stocks, the result doesn't always make a lot of sense. McClatchy traded today at 5.7 times 2009 earnings, compared with 5.5 for Gannett, which doesn't have the same debt concerns and hasn't been as beaten up on Wall Street.
McClatchy的股票一直被大量作空就不足为奇了。虽然空头回补有望纠正超卖的股票，但是结果却并不总是合情合理的。McClatchy上周五基于2009年收益的市盈率为5.7倍，另一报业集团Gannett为5.5倍；但实际上，无论是债务问题还是损失情况，后者都要比前者好。


This topsy-turvy world extends to those stocks likely to benefit from tougher economic times. Wal-Mart Stores, which has long outperformed because of its relatively defensive business, was down Friday as the panic abated.
这种颠倒的状况还延伸到了那些有可能会在经济困难时期受益的股票。沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)因其业务相对以防守为主而长期强于大盘，不过上周五随着恐慌的减弱，该公司股票下挫。


With hedge fund dislocation likely to continue for days, similarly strange moves, and volatility, could be the norm.
由于对冲基金的混乱很可能还会持续数天的时间，类似的奇怪走势和动荡可能会变得司空见惯。