Have you had enough yet?
你受够了吗？
You probably are good and panicked by now. Smiling bravely that this too shall pass as your hand gropes for the exit door. Sure, you will be poorer, but you won't be penniless.
你可能现在惊慌失措。在你摸索着准备退场的时候，勇敢地微笑，这一切也会过去的。当然，你的资产会缩水，但你不会血本无归。
Now, just hold on a bit longer. Take a deep breath and think about some of your choices.
现在，再稍微坚持一下吧。做个深呼吸，然后想想你的一些选择。
- Choice No.1: You can either buy or sell U.S. bank stocks.
选择之一：你可以买进或抛售美国银行类股。
At Monday's close, the combined common equity of JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) had a total market value of less than $500 billion.
截至周一收盘时，摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase & Co.)、美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)、花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)、富国银行(Wells Fargo & Co.)以及U.S. Bancorp的市值加起来都不到5,000亿美元。
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the largest U.S. company by market capitalization, has a value of a little more than $400 billion.
目前美国市值最大的公司埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)总市值也仅略高于4,000亿美元。
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., or ICBC, (1398.HK) still carries a market value of more than $300 billion.
中国工商银行(ICBC)目前市值超过3,000亿美元。
The case to buy is straightforward. Buy the banks and you are buying a government-funded oligopoly. The TARP program, Fed commercial paper program and today's historic global interest rate cut all are designed to keep the banks afloat.
买进的理由显而易见。买进银行类股，就等于买进政府资助的寡头垄断股票。不良资产救助计划(TARP)、美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)的商业票据计划以及周三历史性的全球携手减息举措都是为了提振银行类股。
This isn't to say the U.S. banks are a great bargain. But to sell at this level, essentially means you believe the U.S. financial system is bankrupt-that the bad debts and capital requirements of the banks swamp all their assets.
这并不是说现在买美国银行类股是个好买卖。但在现在的价位抛售，基本上就意味着你认为美国金融体系已经崩溃，认为不良债券和银行资本要求已经侵蚀了它们所有的资产。
Of course, that is plausible. But likely? With all of the Federal Reserve's actions, isn't it just a matter of time before credit starts to flow?
当然，这似乎有点道理。但有可能吗？在Fed采取了这么多举措之后，信贷重新开始流动难道不就是个时间问题？
Buy or sell: it's your choice.
买进还是抛售：这是你的选择。
- Choice No. 2: You can either buy U.S. pharmaceutical stocks or sell them.
选择之二：你可以买进或者抛售美国制药类股。
XLV, the health-care exchange-traded fund, comprised principally of U.S. pharmaceutical companies, traded Monday at under $28 - about 30% off the 52-week high. Nearly 10% of the XLV is comprised of Pfizer, a pharmaceutical giant with $48 billion in revenue and more than $10 billion in net cash on its balance sheet. Pfizer trades at a price of less than seven times next year's expected earnings and sports a 7% dividend.
医疗交易所买卖基金(ETF) XLV主要由美国制药公司股票组成。该基金周一跌破28美元，较52周高点下挫了大约30%。XLV投资组合中有将近10%是辉瑞公司(Pfizer)股票，后者是年收入480亿美元的制药巨头，资产负债表上现金净额超过100亿美元。相对于下一财年的预期收益，目前辉瑞股价市盈率不足7倍，股息率为7%。
Pfizer Inc.'s (PFE) share price is down by a third over the past year because of flat growth and a weak product pipeline. But it also is down because of panic selling. The 7% dividend appears safe. And certainly in our troubled times demand for Pfizer's Ben-Gay cream or its panic-attack medicine Xanax should hold steady.
过去一年，辉瑞公司股价下跌了三分之一，主要受增长乏力和产品线疲软拖累。不过，恐慌性抛售也是该股下挫的重要原因。7%的股息率似乎安全可靠。当然，在经济困难时期，辉瑞公司的Ben-Gay药膏和抗焦虑药Xanax应该会有稳定的需求。
Buy or sell: It's your choice.
买进还是抛售：这是你的选择。
- Choice No. 3: You can either buy U.S. tech stocks or sell them.
选择之三：你可以买进或抛售美国科技类股。
Do you admire International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), Intel Corp. (INTC) and Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)? These are the world's leading technology companies. All profitable. All carry little to no debt or have cash surpluses. And all are now priced at less than 15 times next year's expected earnings.
你仰慕国际商业机器公司(IBM)、微软(Microsoft)、惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard Co.)、英特尔(Intel Corp.)以及思科系统(Cisco Systems Inc.)这些科技巨头吗？这些都是世界顶尖的科技公司。他们都收益丰厚，负债很少或者没有负债，或持有现金盈余。相对于下财年预期收益，这些公司目前市盈率都不到15倍。
Not enough growth? How about Apple Inc. (AAPL), which at $90 is trading at less than half its 52-week high? Based on analyst projections, Apple trades at just over 15 times next year's earnings.
这些股票增长不够？那苹果公司(Apple Inc.)怎么样，该股目前报90美元，还不到其52周高点的一半。根据分析师的预计，较之下财年预期收益，苹果公司目前市盈率略高于15倍。
For years, tech companies that increased earnings by double-digit percentages typically traded at north of 20 or even 30 times earnings.
多年以来，收益呈现两位数增幅的科技公司一般市盈率都超过20倍甚至高达30倍。
But wait a second, you may say. The panic is driven by fear of a global recession or even depression. And that will wipe out demand for the tech company products and erase their earnings.
但你可能会说，等一下。恐慌主要是因为市场担心全球经济陷入衰退甚至萧条。这种状况会拖累科技产品的需求，打压科技公司的收益。
True. A recession will knock down their earnings. But by how much? You can always paint a scenario to justify any stock price no matter how high or low. The question you should ask yourself is, how bad will things get?
没错，经济衰退的确会影响科技公司的收益状况。但这种影响程度有多高？无论股价高还是低，你都可以设想一下，来判定公司股价是否合理。你应该问问自己，情况会有多糟呢？
If you think bad enough to wipe out the profits of tech companies for many years to come, you know what to do.
如果你认为情况实在是太糟糕了，科技公司未来多年的收益都会因此泡汤，那你知道该怎么做了。
Buy or sell: It's your choice.
买进还是抛售：这是你的选择。
Nobody knows where this stock market may bottom in the next few days. Will the Dow fall to 9000? To 8000? 7000? Sure, it could go that low. But it probably won't.
没人知道当前的股市将来会在何处触底？道琼斯指数会跌到9000点、8000点还是7000点？当然，道指也有可能会跌到那么低，但这种情况还是不太可能出现。
Most of the recent selling is done by investors who have little choice. Hedge funds and mutual funds are selling based on redemptions. Fast-money traders are selling as they are stopped out of short-term positions. The selling begets selling, which is what a panic is all about.
最近大多数抛售举动都来自没什么选择的投资者。对冲基金和共同基金在抛售，是因为他们需要应对赎回。投机者在抛售，是因为他们正从短期头寸脱身。抛售引发抛售，这正是恐慌之所在。
But for long-term investors, panics are a time for thought and choice. Turn off the TV and take a view. What will it be: buy or sell?
但对长线投资者来说，恐慌时期正是他们思考和选择的时机。关掉电视，冷静分析一下，你究竟该买进还是抛售？
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