The global retrenchment in prices for food, energy and raw materials helped boost China's trade surplus and reduce inflation in August, alleviating two key difficulties for Beijing and giving authorities more room to support the economy if needed.
全球食品、能源和原材料价格的走低在某种程度上推动了中国8月份贸易顺差的增加和通货膨胀的回落，从而缓解了北京面临的两大主要难题，也为有关部门必要时采取支持经济增长的政策进一步打开了空间。
China's Customs agency said imports increased 23.1% in August from a year earlier, slowing sharply from the 33.7% growth rate in July as the decline in commodity prices cut the country's monthly bill for things like crude oil, iron ore and soybeans. Export growth also slowed but by a smaller margin, notching a 21.1% increase. That left a trade surplus, or margin by which exports exceeded imports, of $28.7 billion, 15% more than a year earlier and a record.
中国海关总署称，由于大宗商品价格下跌降低了中国购买原油、铁矿石和大豆等商品的月度支出，8月份的进口额比上年同期增长23.1%，大大低于7月份33.7%的增速。出口增幅也出现下降，但降幅较小，当月增长了21.1%。这使得贸易顺差达到了287亿美元的创纪录水平，比上年同期增长15%。
At the same time, domestic prices for important food items like pork and cooking oil have stabilized or even fallen in recent weeks. The rapid increase in prices for such goods starting last year was the main cause of China's inflation rate surging to a 12-year high of 8.7% in February. But last month the consumer-price index was just 4.9% higher than a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, coming in lower than analysts' expectations and below July's 6.3%.
与此同时，国内猪肉和食用油等重要食品的价格近几周来走稳，甚至有所下跌。去年以来此类商品价格的快速上涨是中国通胀率今年2月份创出8.7%的12年新高的主要原因。但国家统计局周三公布，8月份的消费者价格指数(CPI)仅比上年同期上涨了4.9%，低于分析师的预期，也低于7月份的6.3%。
Lower inflation gives China's policy makers more room to maneuver as they try to judge to what extent the slowdown in exports is translating into lower consumption and investment domestically -- and how much they should do about it.
通货膨胀率的下降使中国的政策制定者有了更多操作空间，他们一直试图判断出口减缓到何种程度会降低国内的消费和投资，以及应为此做些什么工作。
The fall in commodity prices 'removes one of the big uncertainties for the outlook' for China's economy, said Ben Simpfendorfer, an economist for Royal Bank of Scotland. 'Lower food prices is good news for the household sector, and lower oil prices is good news for the corporate sector. And it makes life a little bit easier for the central bank.'
苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)经济学家本•辛菲德费尔(Ben Simpfendorfer)说，大宗商品价格的下跌消除了中国经济前景中一个巨大的不确定因素。食品价格下跌对家庭而言是个好消息，石油价格下跌对企业而言也是个好消息。这就会使央行的日子好过一点。
At least, the combination of falling headline inflation and declining coal and oil prices makes it easier for Chinese authorities to adjust state-controlled domestic energy prices. The government has raised retail gasoline prices once and electricity prices twice this year to alleviate widespread shortages that were becoming a further drag on growth.
至少，总体通货膨胀率的下降加之煤炭石油价格的下跌使得中国有关部门可以更轻松地调整政府控制的国内能源价格。政府今年已一次上调汽油零售价格、两次上调电价，以缓解普遍存在的日益拖累经济增长的能源短缺问题。
The pace of adjustments has still been slower than industry analysts think is needed because of authorities' concerns about adding to high inflation -- concerns that may now be receding. 'We believe the softening of CPI inflation has opened a window for the government to make the much-needed adjustments in energy prices,' Goldman Sachs economists said in a research note.
由于有关部门担心加剧通胀，调整的步伐一直低于行业分析师认为需要的水平，但现在这种担心可能正在减弱。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家在研究报告中表示，我们认为CPI的下降为政府对能源价格进行必要调整敞开了大门。
More consistent energy supplies would certainly support growth. Authorities loosened bank lending at the beginning of August, telling banks they could extend 5% more credit this year. A cut in the standard corporate-tax rate to 25% from 33% took effect in January, and some export-tax rebates have been selectively increased in recent weeks.
更为持续的能源供应显然会支持增长。有关部门8月初放松了银行贷款，将银行今年的贷款额度提高了5%。企业所得税1月份也从33%下调到了25%，近几周来也开始有选择地增加一部分出口退税。
China's export growth has averaged around 22% this year -- a solid performance given the slowdown in global growth, but slower than China's export growth last year. With more weakness likely ahead for the U.S., Europe and Japan, exports are widely expected to slow even further.
今年中国的出口增幅平均约为22%，鉴于全球增长放缓，这可谓是一个很不错的表现。但这个速度低于中国去年的出口增速。由于美国、欧洲和日本经济可能进一步走弱，普遍预计出口增速还会进一步回落。
China's slumping stock prices and weak real-estate market have also dented people's confidence in the economy and have led to many calls for the government to do more to shore up growth. Yet some analysts have cautioned that with the economy still expanding by around 10%, any big stimulus risks reigniting inflation and asset bubbles.
中国低迷的股市和疲弱的房地产市场打击了人们对经济的信心，也引发了要求政府采取更多措施推动增长的呼声。不过一些分析人士提醒说，由于经济增长率仍保持在10%左右，任何重大刺激措施都有重新推高通胀和催生资产泡沫的风险。
'If it is one thing China's economic policy has consistently done well, it is to support high levels of growth. The risk is that they do it a little too well in coming quarters,' said Glenn Maguire, Asia economist for Societe Generale.
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)亚洲经济学家马博文(Glenn Maguire)称，如果说中国的经济政策在哪方面做得不错的话，那就是支持了经济的高速增长。风险在于它们在今后几个季度在这方面做得过好。
Investment spending has slowed this year but is still relatively fast. The National Bureau of Statistics released separate figures Wednesday showing that investment in fixed assets, like factory equipment and buildings, was up 28% in August from a year earlier, coming in somewhat slower than 29.5% in July. But it isn't clear whether the figure represents a real shift in momentum, since restrictions on construction projects during the Beijing Olympics likely slowed activity in August.
今年投资支出有所放缓，但仍保持较快速度。国家统计局周三另行公布的数据显示，8月份固定资产投资比上年同期增长28%，略低于7月份的29.5%。但尚不清楚这个数字是否表明趋势的真正转变，因为北京奥运会期间对建筑项目的限制可能导致了8月份固定资产投资的放缓。
Inflationary pressures remain. Nonfood inflation, China's closest equivalent to a measure of core prices, didn't slow in August, remaining at 2.1%. And China's producer-price index continues to show accelerating inflation, rising 10.1% from a year earlier in August after a 10% gain in July.
通胀压力依然存在。8月份，类似核心价格指数的非食品通货膨胀率并未放缓，仍保持在2.1%的水平。生产者价格指数继续上升，在7月份比上年同期增长10%后，8月份又达到了10.1%的高位。
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